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A closer look - the NSI Act: one year on

The UK NSI Act is now one full year into its operation, having introduced a hybrid mandatory and voluntary regime to strengthen the UK government's powers to scrutinise and intervene in transactions on grounds of national security. Unlike foreign direct investment regimes in other jurisdictions, the UK regime does not include any requirement for the acquirer to be a foreign person and instead the mandatory regime focuses on the sector in which the target business operates.

Relevant transactions which fall within any of seventeen mandatory sectors, including data infrastructure, energy, and suppliers to the emergency services, need to be notified and cleared in advance of completion. A mandatory notification can be triggered both by a majority acquisition and by any other transaction (including any restructuring transaction) where a party increases its stake through any of the 25%, 50% and 75% ownership thresholds.

Acquisitions of entities active in any other sectors or acquisitions of qualifying assets, which give rise to UK national security concerns, may be called in for review by the Secretary of State (acting through the Investment Security Unit (ISU)) or voluntarily notified by the parties.

According to the UK government’s inaugural report on the operation of the NSI Act (covering the first three months of the regime), 222 notifications were received between January and March 2022, across the whole range of sectors. This number was proportionately not far off the government's expectation of between 1,000 and 1,830 notifications a year. The next report, covering a year-long period, is due in March 2023. In our experience, given in particular that failure to make a mandatory notification will result in a transaction being void, parties are aligned in taking a cautious approach to the question of notification and therefore notifications across the first full year of the regime are likely to have remained at a similar level.

Where UK national security concerns arise, the first year of the NSI Act demonstrates the government’s appetite to take strong action. To date there have been 14 deal interventions. At least in the case of acquirors linked to politically sensitive states and sectors that are key to the UK’s national security, as set out below, transactions are being prohibited and this can be expected to continue. However, the UK government has also demonstrated a pragmatic stance when considering the appropriateness of remedies packages, even where politically sensitive states are involved. By way of example, the acquisition by a Chinese buyer of development rights for a project aimed at improving UK Power Grid's ability to use renewable energy was approved subject to remedies aimed at preserving energy and infrastructure security. The government’s action also reflects the focus of the NSI Act on the activities of the target, rather than purely the nationality of the investor. UK-based investors and acquirors based in politically friendly nations have faced in-depth probes into their deals, in some cases resulting in remedies.

4 out of the 5 deal prohibitions to date have related to acquirors with Chinese links and transactions that either pose risks to the UK defence sector (in two cases) or to the UK's semiconductor industry (in two cases), each raising defence concerns of some kind. In the fifth case, the deal prohibition related to a Russian-backed fund acquisition in the UK broadband sector. It is only a matter of time before the scope of sectors in which action is taken broadens. Indeed, clearances subject to remedies have now been seen in the emergency services, energy, satellite communications, critical national infrastructure (specifically for quantum timing and atomic clocks), aerospace and mobile telecoms spheres. A broad range of remedies have been imposed, typically including restrictions on the sharing of information and maintenance of strategic capabilities in the UK.

At the other end of the spectrum, i.e. deals which do not raise material national security issues, the new system appears to be working efficiently. Filings are generally accepted by the government within a small number of days, with clearance received within the initial review period without significant requests for further information. As anticipated, on the basis of our discussions with the ISU leading up to the new regime, the NSI Act generally operates as a timing and process issue on the typical private equity transaction rather than a more substantive concern.

Private Equity, public bids

Global private equity continues to sit on an estimated $2 trillion of uninvested capital.³ However, events in the debt markets in 2022 necessarily brought a pause in private equity investment, as a result of uncertainty on the cost and availability of borrowing. As mentioned above, the number of bids backed by private equity and other funds fell from over half of all bids in 2021 to approximately one third in 2022. In particular, we saw fewer bids from North American private equity buyers.

Absent further market turmoil, this hiatus in M&A activity may well lead to a return to the competition for assets which we saw in 2021. In our view, there is still appetite from private equity firms to do public takeovers and we have continued to receive a steady flow of instructions from private equity sponsors, especially in the mid-cap bracket.

Public to private activity in 2022 was evenly spread between sectors, with financial and technology remaining the most popular. These sectors are likely to remain attractive, although if this year's trend towards consolidation continues, there may be competition with corporate bidders for assets.

Price formation remains a puzzle, as in previous years, with uncertainty around debt financing further complicating matters for private equity bidders. However, UK listed companies are still considered to be undervalued, and AIM shares performed particularly badly in 2022. If this trend continues into 2023, main market and AIM companies will be particularly attractive to overseas PE houses looking to leverage their currency advantage.

Premiums offered by private equity bidders, typically higher than those offered by trade bidders, fell in 2022 to an average of 39%, against an overall average for all bidders of 61%. This appears to be a product of the headwinds being negotiated by private equity, set against the drivers for consolidation between corporates, where multiples rose to a high of 188.5%.4

Footnotes

The global view

The UK was not alone in seeing a reduction in M&A dealmaking in 2022. According to Dealogic statistics,5 global mergers and acquisitions fell 38.8%, from $5.9 trillion in 2021 to $3.6 trillion in 2022, approximately 9% lower than the 5-year average before the pandemic (2015-19).

Deal sizes fell: the value of "megadeals" (worth more than $5bn) fell 41 percent to $1.1trn, and mid-market deals ($1bn-5bn), dropped 44 percent by value and 42 percent by number of deals.6

Sector Focus

M&A deals were spread over a variety of sectors in 2022. Computers and electronics accounted for almost a quarter of acquisitions, followed by healthcare, finance, real estate and utilities and energy.


Geographical Distribution

North America saw the sharpest drop in M&A by value, by approximately half to $1.59 trillion. Europe and Asia-Pacific saw less dramatic slowdowns at 27% and 30% respectively. 44% of global dealmaking came from North America, Europe contributed 25%, North Asia 12% and the Indian subcontinent 5%.

Private Equity

Globally, as in the UK, private equity investors have had to choose between taking increased equity or waiting for debt financing to become more predictable. This has led to an inevitable decline in private equity activity, of 36% to $784.5bn.7 In spite of this, private equity still retained 22% of the M&A market. Refinitiv states that "buyouts of USD 644bn and exits of USD 539bn are respectively 50% and 43% higher than the average in 2015-19."

National Security and FDI Regimes

Global foreign investment flows have bounced back over the past two years, and now exceed pre-pandemic levels. The global trend towards increased government intervention in M&A transactions involving overseas investors is continuing. On cross border transactions, governments continue to demonstrate their increasing appetite to monitor foreign investments in target businesses which either sit within (or have significant operations in) their jurisdiction, as seen in the increasing number of transactions subject to regulatory approvals prior to completion. While some of the most onerous restrictions imposed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in jurisdictions such as Australia and New Zealand have been relaxed, there is still a global trend towards increased intervention stemming in part from the current geopolitical context.

In addition to the UK's National Security and Investment Act (see A closer look - the NSI Act: one year on), we are also seeing an increasing number, and scope, of FDI regimes applicable and enforced across the EU and globally. At the EU level, the European Commission has actively encouraged individual Member States to introduce, or expand, their national FDI regimes. By the end of 2021, 25 out of 27 EU Members States either had a national FDI screening mechanism in place or had initiated a process expected to result in the adoption of one. This includes the adoption of new national screening mechanisms in the Czech Republic, Denmark and Slovakia. We have also seen existing regimes amended to widen their scope (for example, in France, lowering the thresholds at which investments of non-EU investors are screened and, in Germany, widening the scope of applicable sectors).

A new EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) also came into force at the beginning of 2023, operating essentially as another form of foreign investment screening. Under the FSR some M&A activity, if it involves target businesses with activities in Europe, may need to be notified to the European Commission for clearance prior to completion. This will be the case if certain financial thresholds are met, including a minimum level of financial contribution received by the acquiror from non-EU state entities. The mandatory (and suspensory) notification regime for M&A deals will take effect from 12 October 2023. However, the European Commission will have powers to investigate deals on its own initiative from 12 July 2023.


Footnotes

Regulatory change

The Takeover Code

Definition of Acting in Concert

The Takeover Panel has published rule changes in connection with the definition of acting in concert, a number of which simply represent codification of existing practice. The principal changes include the following:

  • The threshold for presumed concertedness between affiliated companies being raised from 20% to 30%.
  • Presumed concertedness in affiliates will apply both to (1) shares carrying voting rights and (2) equity share capital (whether or not the shares also carry voting rights). The 30% threshold will apply differently to each of these categories: voting control does not 'dilute' through a chain of ownership; whereas equity investment normally does 'dilute' through the chain of ownership, unless the equity investment is of more than 50% of the equity, in which case it does not.
  • Interests in funds are to be treated in same way as interests in a company's equity share capital (codifying how concertedness can attach to fund investors).
  • The introduction of a new presumption which codifies that an investment manager of or investment adviser to: (i) an offeror or an investor in an offeror consortium; or (ii) the offeree company, together with any person "controlling, controlled by or under the same control as" that investment manager or investment adviser, is presumed to be acting in concert with the offeror or the offeree company respectively.
  • Reduction of the thresholds at which the Panel may be willing to agree that the other parts of a consortium investor's larger organisation are not acting in concert with the consortium offeror.

Timetables on Competing Bids

As a result of the competing bids for M&C Saatchi and Stagecoach, the Panel concluded that it needed to clarify the application of the Takeover Code timetable where one or both competing offers is subject to regulatory clearances and one is proceeding by way of an offer and the other by way of a scheme.
The Panel has proposed the following Code amendments, clarifying the procedure in such a situation:

  • the parties must consult the Panel as to the applicable timetable, including:

    i. the latest date on which either competing offeror may announce a revised offer and, if necessary, the date on which the Panel will introduce an auction procedure; and
    ii. the offer timetable thereafter, including, if relevant, Day 60 (the "unconditional date");
  • the Panel would not impose an auction until the clearance conditions of both bids had been satisfied or waived; and
  • the "unconditional date" of the contractual offer would generally fall between the shareholder meeting date and the sanction hearing date of the scheme, giving shareholders the opportunity to decide on the contractual offer after discovering the outcome of the shareholder meetings on the scheme.

Miscellaneous Amendments

The Panel has also published a consultation on various other Code amendments, including in respect of distress situations. The proposals include the ability of the Panel to make derogations from the Code, and even the Code principles, in distress situations.




UK Merger Control Thresholds to be Revised

The government confirmed in its Autumn Statement that it will legislate to amend, amongst other matters, the Competition and Market Authority's jurisdiction to review M&A activity in the UK. In addition to strengthening the CMA's ability to review M&A in the digital sector (requiring firms with 'strategic market status' to notify their most significant transactions), the government also proposes to introduce a new merger control threshold to catch so-called 'killer acquisitions'. The existing turnover threshold is also expected to be increased, from £70 million to £100 million, to reflect inflation.

Forecast for full year 2023

An inevitable comedown

M&A dealmakers in 2021 were unstoppable in the face of global events, so long as the economics were clear. Rocketing inflation and interest rate rises have since caused the one thing sure to put the brakes on M&A activity: uncertainty. Whether or not the market for takeovers will return to previous high levels in 2023 depends on various factors, but the most significant will be the ability of financial sponsors to obtain debt finance on predictable terms.

The drivers for M&A continue

Although 2022's figures are dwarfed by 2021's, they do not compare too unfavourably with the pre-pandemic years. We believe there are reasons to be optimistic, at least in the sphere of M&A opportunities.

Our prediction that corporates would turn to consolidation in order to save costs and maximise growth seems to have been justified, as trade bidders in 2022 far outstripped private equity. Some of these combinations were a result of the inevitable winners and losers in an economic downturn, while others were high-premium combinations enabling acquirors to scale up, and beat the competition. In both cases, such opportunities are bound to continue into 2023, albeit largely for corporates who have large cash reserves or undrawn lending facilities.

Continued underperformance in the UK markets, particularly AIM, and the slow recovery of sterling following last year's economic turmoil, both mean that UK PLCs remain attractively priced to overseas bidders.

Potential for distressed M&A

Inflation, rate rises and rising costs will continue to dampen confidence, both in the consumer sector and for business in general, so that distressed M&A is an inevitability. It is telling that the Takeover Panel has taken steps to ensure that it has the optimum flexibility when dealing with distressed situations. We are likely to see increased consolidation as a result, and opportunities for financial buyers once the loan markets stabilise.

Our verdict

In our view, despite economic gloom in many areas, 2023 could see private equity come back swinging, and a wave of strategic consolidation. In any case this year will be a roller coaster: buckle up and hold tight.